[Stormbitch]

Buy vs Keep.

Current Car.

F10 530D M Sport Reverse Cam, High beam assist, upgraded sound.
Miles 54,000 Age - year 3.

Reason for change.

1. Lost 48 days ownership, 21 visits, 8 warranty claims. 4 Paint incidents.

2. Fearful of further problems.

3. Don't feel inclined to spend on it.

Costs to keep car year 1

1. Warranty extension BMW £980
2. Brakes all round BMW £850
3. Service end 14 BMW £300
4. Tyres purchased already £1000 (spent)

Total cost to keep for 12 months - £3130 or £260.00 per month

Cost to change car for F10 2013 year.

1. Trade in value £21,000-23,000 cost to change £10,000

Or £10,000 minus £3130 which would be my cost of ownership this year.

What would you do, if you were in my shoes. I am stressed out about it.

[Noggie]

Guess it depends on how long you intend to keep the new one.
Are you planning on getting a -13 LCI?

I have a -12 that I bought in May, and I plan to start looking for a -14 LCI in about a year, and make the trade late 2015.

As you say there is a risk of additional cost with the current car, and the trading cost will be high for this year, but hopefully running cost will be lower in the future.
How will a -13 depreciate compared to your current car.

I have kept my cars for 4-6 years in the past, usually taking a huge loss in the cars value, plus running costs, maintenance cost, and those mods
I just did the math on this, and changing often does not mean a greater loss.
If you look at the loss in value alone, keeping a car a long time is good, and newer cars depreciate quicker, however adding the other costs as a car gets older that a new car don't have, I have concluded that my loss over a 6 year period is virtually the same if I keep the car for 6 years, or if I change every 2 years. Difference is that I get a new car much more frequent.

If you are worried about having more unforeseen expenses with your current car, make the trade and at least get some peace of mind, that alone is worth a few £.

[Stormbitch]

Yes indeed it is peace of mind, but good point, the money to change will be £10,000 which will basically be gone by 2016, Mine has probably bottomed out for a while now as I suspect it will always find, £15,000 for the foreseeable.

Its hard as I have a bit of discalcula, so I don't absorb numbers that easily.

I suppose what you are saying is loss on my current car PLUS the running expenses will equal the same £10,000 or no?

And if I change am I loosing an additional £10,000 or the same £10,000

The 15 trade for you would not be good, as the new one is due a year later in 16

[ezmaass]

Storm - this isn't your first time posting about this, and I recall suggesting to DITCH your current car back then. I'll stick with my suggestion. Clearly this is continuing to weigh on you, and I see no reason to believe that the concern will alleviate itself by some divine means.

That said, nobody can really give you great financial advice unless you wish to divulge much more personal information - clearly I wouldn't suggest it! If you're sitting on a boat-load of cash, have a paid-off house, nice retirement fund, etc... go for it. Stop stressing the little things. But you may also be in debt up to your eyeballs, a 30 year mortgage in front of you, etc... in which case you'd be best to sell the 5-series and buy a bicycle.

So, I guess I'll just say that if you deem your financial situation to be sound, and trading out of the car isn't going to have any material affect on your financial well-being, I'd do it... like I said, this is your second time posting about this question, and clearly you're still losing sleep over it. I'd trade out.

[Noggie]

first of all I don't know the car market in the UK.

But what you need to look at is.

if you don't trade, how long will you keep your current car?
Lets say 2 more years.
first thing is how much will that car depreciate in the next 2 years.
Then expected running cost for the next two years.
risk of additional cost due to unexpected failures because age of car and mileage.
expired warranty.

If you trade, you will have the £10.000 trade in cost now.
How long will you keep it, 2 years or more?
if we look at 2 years again.
Chances are that the new car will depreciate more, so expect to lose a little more on the value of the car.
The car is under warranty, and it is newer, lower mileage, and part of a later production run where most issues on earlier cars are corrected, so there should not be any unexpected costs.
Chances are that the higher depreciation of the newer car will be outweighed by the lack of additional running cost.

Then there is the peace of mind factor, and the new car factor.

After having had mine for 3 months there are a few options I have noticed that I should have had. I have actually prepared a list of options I am missing and want on the next one

To put it simple.

Your current car will cost you 2 years depreciation + running cost + unexpected repairs and other costs.

The new car will cost you £10.000 + 2 years depreciation + running cost.

What I am saying is that there is a chance that the sum of both will be pretty much the same, the new car might be slightly more expensive, but then the new car feel and peace of mind factor comes in.

[HighlandPete]

My last BMW (E91 330d) cost me nearly the same to run years 4 - 6 as the first three. Add the additional running costs like MOTs, comprehensive extended warranty (for peace of mind) and additional servicing, and pence per mile worked out virtually the same. My costs were slightly distorted for the second three years, as my annual mileage was a bit lower, which obviously pushed up the ppm.

If the car had been suspect in any way, I'd have traded at 3-years, but as it was running well and only on 36k miles, made sense to keep it and get more out of it. I was a little surprised it cost virtually the same for the second three year period. The higher depreciation exchanged for higher running costs.

HighlandPete

[Noggie]

Originally Posted by HighlandPete

I was a little surprised it cost virtually the same for the second three year period. The higher depreciation exchanged for higher running costs.

HighlandPete

My point exactly.

I recently had my e46 M3 for 6 years.
Prices are in no way comparable to the UK, but this is my "cost":
Bought the car for £65.000 sold it after 6 years for £36.000.
Depreciation £29.000 or £4800 a year.
In those 6 years I had an estimated running costs of £25.000. This does not include fuel, insurance, tax etc. This is repairs, tires, mods etc.
Over 6 years this amounts to £4166 a year.
This means my total loss, was £4800+£4166 = £8966 a year.

This May I bought my -12 M550xd, if I sell this in 1,5-2 years I doubt the total depreciation will be more than ~£18.000.
Since the car is under warranty, has a 5 year service included deal and I have no planned mod's, I expect my running costs to be virtually zero in that time.

This is why I believe trading often is not more expensive than holding on to a car for many years.
If my estimates are correct, to get the best possible "bang for bucks" on cars.
Buy a 1,5-2 year old car, and change every 2 years.
That way someone else has taken the biggest depreciation hit, and you get rid of it before the running cost starts to ad up.

[Stormbitch]

hahaha "Bicycle"

I think what's keeping me awake is that I do have the money no question to change on cars like this and maybe above. But the older I get the more I am really aware of money like an old man. I am self employed like many of you although my line of work means your in or out - no middle.

Granted I think the value of being focused on being happy not constantly on Autotrader and thinking about business and making money could actually out weigh any losses ten fold.

Whilst all the wealth books do say drive the oldest car you can and pay for it cash, I think they are potentially missing the point.

Its a coming of age thing for me 40 something now. No kids, no gf, cars my only passion, very few mates these days occasional parties but not like in the 90s, no women. A sense I am not getting any younger and how long can I sustain or chose to sustain loosing money on things that a. annoy me b. loose money. c. Constantly being updated to make money from me.

Yes my house is paid off, but actually that only makes man want for a bigger house (Note for those wanting to pay off their house!!!!)

I am reading "The Science of Becoming Rich" which is helping - an old text.

However as a philosopher, I really would love the idea of driving an old car deliberately. My friends call it OPT OUT. Sometimes we call our cars names, in one case my friends is called THE OPT. He feels relieved to own it. My secret theory is that if he had more money his "OPT" car would be better ! This mind set came from Rich Dad Poor Dad.

However a couple of things really disturb me about spending money now.

1. Planned obsolescence. ( naturally had it not been for the doc, I would have no idea )

2. When you visit a hot island like say Greece and everyone are the same but don't have posh cars or care or desire them, you return wondering why on earth we chase each other and have this horrific sense of keeping up.

Everyone in the UK now has a cool newish posh car "on finance" and so there is little joy in owning something special. ( that said... there is less car keying these days )

3. I actually have a current shape car with loads of spec for no money. Reverse cam, high beam assist, re fitted underseat subs, door card sound upgrade. I am only changing it cause it doesnt deserve the £1000 warranty and I am stupid in the head and think that it will continually go wrong and I will have to fight the "goodwill" battle with BMW

4. BMW's break. That is my experience now. Yet nobody makes a car I like to drive

5. BMW are no longer easy to buy. 1, 2, 3, 4, all have far too much road noise and far too little luxury for the money.


Noting your kind words there are a couple of questions.

Is this correct?

1st three years - no repairs, no tyres, no brakes, - cost = devaluation.

2nd three - repairs, tyres, brakes, worry - cost = slower devaluation

1 is the same cost as 2?

[Noggie]

Funny, that was almost like reading my own story

I am not quite 40 yet, but close, pretty much same family and friends situation.
Different line of work though, the world is my work place, taking me away from home 6+ months of the year.

I made the swap to a bigger house a couple of years back so I know what you mean, but I just had to get that garage .

Being a car nut I have two cars, one old classic, and a F11 daily driver. Many have asked me why I have two cars being so much away from home, but to me it is my interest, and hobby. I love cars.

Since I have opted for two cars, a classic never to be sold, and a daily driver to be replaced every two years.
I have started to move towards comfort rather than sportiness lately though, guess it's another side effect of coming of age.

Getting older has taught me one thing though, I care less about what other people think about me and my life.
Also I would say "you only live once", so if you can, why not, and what others think is none of my concern.

To answer your question.
options 1 and 2 will probably not differ too much, however that require you to buy a slightly used car, not a brand new one.
like I said before. Buy a ~2 year old car and keep it 2-3 years means someone else took the "driving off the lot" depreciation, and you get rid of it before the cost start to ad up.
one thing to watch out for is when new models come out as this will usually make the one it is replacing take a depreciation hit.
In your case, trading the -11 for a -13 Facelift would be your best bet, as a pre-facelift will be harder to sell in 2-3 years, and the new 5 is just around the corner.

[Grover432]

My advice - if you have the money, do what makes you happy. But personally, not that you asked, but I'd spend less time ruminating over the car thing an find a wife and have a kid or two. That will put this whole car replacement decision into focus for you.

My experience with 5 series and up BMWs is that they depreciate like crazy over the first 3 years and after the warranty runs out they are hard to sell privately at all (Canada, anyway). In past years I had better experience selling my 3 series cars - less complicated cars and lower initial cost so many more buyers out there = lower depreciation.

Still, any BMW purchase is an expensive proposition compared to buying a Japanese import (Lexus, Toyota, Honda etc.) which have much better reliability and depreciation rates.

[Stormbitch]

I'll just order one right now... A wife... So easy to find.

Online dating for 8 years. Few bangs - lots of head cases.

Yes I suppose a 13 would work, the new one isn't due for 16 and affordable till 18 I shouldn't think.

Appreciate your help.

Rumination.. part of my illness unfortunately, but that is what makes me exceptionally creative and hilarious.

[ezmaass]

Storm - if purely from a financial perspective, the decision may be to keep the paid-off car. I had a hard time parting with my last BMW because it was paid off, ran nicely, and was still relatively modern. But I also know that after 6 years or so, you're playing with fire on the maintenance side with BMW.

But if I'm quite honest about it, even the worst of problems with my last BMW wouldn't have justified buying a new $86k BMW. Heck, I could have spent $5k a year for the next 5 years in maintaining the old car, and it still would have been $25k vs. $86k. So, was it a smart financial decision in black and white terms? No.

But things in life aren't black and white. They say, "time is money." They're right. In my daily life, I value things that simplify my days... because I'm busy, busy, busy. I also have a baby just over a year old. So, what value do I put on a car that doesn't break down (or as often)? True, I could have opted to spend $25k (likely absolutely worst case scenario and THEN some) over 5 years or spend $86k (or more) over the same 5 years. However, as my old BMW would age, and it would interrupt my life with trips to the dealer, days out of service, etc, the inconvenience of that may far outweigh the savings.

I guess it's all how you look at it. The financial text books will tell you to keep your car versus buy another 5-series. If you planned to replace it with something like a $15k used civic that may have better long-term reliability with lower operating costs, I'd say the text books may favor that option - TCO analysis pending! But replacing it with another 5 series? Probably not. You'd be better off, purely from a financial perspective, driving the car until the wheels fell off. No amount of money you'd put into it would justify the cost of a new (or almost new) one.

Factor in what makes you happy. If cars make you happy, factor that into your decision. I do think we place too much emphasis on material stuff, as you suggested. It makes me laugh to see people spending this kind of money on cars and NOT be really, really into them... but rather they do it to create an image, keep up with the Jones', or do it simply because they've been brainwashed into believing that it's simply what you do when you have the money. I'm fortunate enough to have quite a lot in life, but I'll cheapo things all the time (regardless of being able to afford more) if it's something I don't truly value - it's utilitarian. Cars? I love cars... and so I splurge on them.

A final thought for this post - money only goes so far, too. Money is a means to an end. Nobody should be wealthy just to say they're wealthy. They should be wealthy in order to provide happiness to themselves, their family, and others... which requires putting that money to use either through spending, charitable giving, investments, or what-not. You can't take it with you when you go. So, my plan for my money is to (a) make sure my family is always safe and reasonably provided-for, (b) have some fun by indulging in a few splurges, (c) provide for my children's education, and (d) ensure I have enough for my wife and I to retire in comfort and good health. It all amounts to a pretty tall order - but if you're smart about it, it should all be quite doable. Anything above and beyond A - D above is gravy. So, for some (like me), the car falls into the (b) category - a splurge. For others, especially if they're not even into cars, it probably shouldn't make the cut until all else is accounted-for.

[Stormbitch]

Very nice writing indeed and some great points made there.

I think in my case having lost 48 days ownership in 2 years, the car having 2 rear end collisions, been keyed twice, a workman ran a bin into it and was caught on CCTV, a new gear box, two new drivers seats, 2 buckled wheels, all the trim out twice, a new instrument cluster, several rattles and the I Drive went off for no reason and was not replaced, this muddies the waters in my strange brain. I also have a rather irritating seat vibration when idle in drive from the engine shaking and have had new engine mounts and 5 different blank looks from dealer technicians. Have posted laboriously for other 530d owners to identify this wobble with no luck in 2 years, and now I have an irritating click when engaging reverse 1 in 9 times.

Whilst some might say "friday car" get rid. Part of me doesn't want to because a. it drives like nothing else b. its working sort of now. c. the paint finally matches on it and d. its a BMW which I planned on keeping until 2016/17. e. Surely if they are made in the same factory there is no such thing as a Friday car, it is not an organism, it is metal.

Like you I have owned far too many cars, when you find one that excites you so much you would rather drive home from a friends than stay over - changing it makes it harder.

This is my 11th BMW and each time I have spent, well, lets not add it up. And sadly what I am left with now, is a thin which looks tremendous, yet fills me with fear of arguing the toss with BMW, a dealer, a warranty company. Moreover can you imagine if these issues are typical and that BMW are just now cheaply made and I will have to go through this all over again.

In a way simple mechanical failures would be somewhat easier and I might even feel better but persuading seems to be a key word at some of the lazy BMW dealers. I even had one technician say "we can't find the issue" and you didn't buy it from us, take it back to the dealer 40 miles away where you bought it.

If I felt that they were joy, as I have come to believe I think I may have purchased another, but....

I persuaded my friend to buy one, he lives four doors down. Guess what..?

Seats out twice, trim out twice, issue with the on board service indicator, wheel bearing issue where BMW could not identify or theorize or refused to open a "puma" case. My friend is an engineer. Miles covered 22,000. He too is beside himself.

( Puma ) is where UK network BMW dealers who are nice, and cannot find a fault, apply to HQ for ideas, and HQ suggest replacing things or ideas at no cost to the client, but seeminly only pay a little out to the network franchise. Some can be bothered, others can't.

Examples.

My local technicians.

330D whining sound.

Its the turbo sir its normal, they all do that.

Out of warranty. So asks an Engineer. He said check the diff.

Take the car back, please check the diff.

Oh, yeah sir the diff has gone. BMW will pay.

Imagine if I had listened to them.

Same Techs.

I have a wobble.

Five Visits. Told to go away.

New franchise. Puma raised. Gear box fault! Replaced at no cost.


So you see, my pain is mainly that I do not and cannot face that a 54k BMW is rubbish and that it NEEDS replacing or MUST be replaced. I am their biggest fan. I went to their factory and tears welled in my eyes.

Ideally I would pay the warranty at get this!!!! £900 for one year £1600 for year 2. But I loathe to buy a warranty based on NECESSITY, rather than peace of mind.

It is interesting and cathartic to hear from more balanced minded, cognitively well individuals who can put perspective in this.

Perhaps I may be making this rather too thinky... but a nice car like this, should not NEED to be replaced.

My experience and to some degree my neighbours and the fact that BMW is 57th in the UK JD power survey for reliability adds to a gnawing paranoia which leads me to think that I am damned if I do and damned if I don't...

[ezmaass]

Storm - It does sound like you've had a bit of a lemon.

The extended warranty is expensive, but again, it's not as expensive as replacing the car with a new(er) one. If delaying a trade for two more years is worth a few thousand pounds, I'd keep it and buy the extended warranty. This may or may not save you any "real" money in the long run.

If the continued problems will drive you insane, and you're financially sound (it sounds like you are!), I'd consider getting rid of it. I don't think your experience is typical. While the 5 is not the most reliable car out there, I think your experience is beyond the average by quite a lot.

I'd also consider buying it brand new. Yes, you're going to take the brunt of the depreciation... HOWEVER, if you plan to keep it for a good long while, who cares? There's something VERY important to be said about being the first owner. Not only do you get the joy and luxury of the new car smell (ahhhh...), but you're the only one who's owned the car, and you'll know it's history from the get-go. While it's financially sound, again, to buy used, you also have no insight into how the car was treated. If the first owner had intentions of ditching the car after only two years, I wouldn't count on them treating the car like an owner who views it as a long-term endeavor.

In any case, I'm very curious to hear what you'll do, Storm!

[Noggie]

Lets face it, you have the first production run of a new model.
These are plagued with issues no matter what brand of car.

I never buy the 2 first years of a car, for this exact reason.
A car has been put into production and there are many kinks to be worked out, over the next few years the experiences made on these cars result in changes to the newer production line.
This is why a -10/-11 5 has many issues, and the -12 and on are better, and they get better the newer they get.
Then a new model will be released and it starts all over again.

Having had 6 BMWs for the past 15 years, E30, E36, E46, E46 M3, I still have the E31 I bought 8 years ago, and now the F11. Been active on forums and BMW clubs, Board member an international E31 club, track driven my cars in the past, been at the BMW factory, taken BMW drivers training at the Nürburgring, I feel I know BMW very well.

I had an -04 M3, I have two friends with an -02 and -03 M3 respectively, and those cars are very different from the one I had, mine felt newer in many ways, indicator stalks felt better, the doors closed better, powered windows was much better, they had wind noise mine did not have.
This is something I expect is the same for all cars.

I bought a -12 F11, because I knew that would be trouble free.
I don't believe the new 5 production will start before 9/17 as the 2018 model, anything else would deviate from the typical 8 year model lifespan.

As I don't want one of the first 2 years of those I might buy a brand new -16 and keep it 4 years, or get an LCI M5 or something completely different, like an M4 or i8 that is in it's mid life production run at that time.

Even if you are happy with your car now, you may be even more happier with a newer one.

[HighlandPete]

Originally Posted by Stormbitch

...Ideally I would pay the warranty at get this!!!! £900 for one year £1600 for year 2. But I loathe to buy a warranty based on NECESSITY, rather than peace of mind. ...

In your situation I'd definitely be running an extended warranty. I do so, simply for peace of mind and the fact there is so much technology in our cars with more to go wrong. (Used them well in the past, so also helps control running costs).

You can purchase on a monthly basis and just run it until you trade the car, if you do. I've just bought an annual policy at £767 for my F11, I've opted for the fully comprehensive with emergency cover and £100 excess. Monthly policy is a bit higher per month, but you have the flexibility to keep it running, or little loss if you trade out the car.

BTW, I don't see your experiences as typical, curious as to why you have needed all the interior work. My 2011 build F11 is as solid a BMW build I've ever come across, I plan to be running mine for a few years. If it continues as at present, will be a good ownership experience.

HighlandPete

[grimlock]

If I were your dealer I would pay you to stay away.

[Stormbitch]

Ez, Nog, Highland...

All excellent points noted.

[ezmaass]

Originally Posted by Noggie

I bought a -12 F11, because I knew that would be trouble free.
I don't believe the new 5 production will start before 9/17 as the 2018 model, anything else would deviate from the typical 8 year model lifespan..

Nog - Typical span is 7 years, correct? And some models only 6 as of late? I'm thinking we'll get 6 to 7 years max out of the F10... new model out in 2016 or 2017.

[Noggie]

Originally Posted by ezmaass

Nog - Typical span is 7 years, correct? And some models only 6 as of late? I'm thinking we'll get 6 to 7 years max out of the F10... new model out in 2016 or 2017.

I guess will just wait and see, i dont plan on getting the first procuction run anyway.

[Stormbitch]

Mid 2016 which is 2 years from now and 5 years since 2011.

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/bmw/5-s...5-series-spied