[Fox530]

Originally Posted by MrPogle

BMW are clearly making the last F10s available to lease companies for not much money. I saw a 530d Msport recently for 320 a month (Inc VAT). Over 3 years the car would depreciate 30k and you can lease it for 15. Bargain!

Depreciate 30k over 3 years?!

You can buy a 530d M Sport for £34k after discounts.

Please sign me up for one of the £4k 3 year old ones!!

[MrPogle]

Originally Posted by Fox530

Depreciate 30k over 3 years?!

You can buy a 530d M Sport for £34k after discounts.

Please sign me up for one of the £4k 3 year old ones!!

Obviously that is all headline figures. Also, buying a car and selling it are not the same. The fact remains that on cars the manufacturer is starting to unload it is way cheaper to lease than to buy.

Do you think that 34k car will be worth 19k in 3 years?

[Martin2C]

It's unlikely that it will be worth £19k, but what's the annual mileage?

The final payment in mine is £15.5k after 4 years / 120,000 miles.

[MrPogle]

The deal I saw was a lease. There is no concept of a final payment. You just rent the car. You aren't buying it.

[Martin2C]

Yes, I get that, I was just comparing depreciation and mileage.

[MrPogle]

Yes but assuming the 15.5k is the amount they are willing to sell you the car for, it is a meaningless figure without knowing how much you have already paid them. It isn't necessarily the market value of the car.

[Fox530]

Originally Posted by MrPogle

Obviously that is all headline figures. Also, buying a car and selling it are not the same. The fact remains that on cars the manufacturer is starting to unload it is way cheaper to lease than to buy.

Do you think that 34k car will be worth 19k in 3 years?

I spent absolutely ages trying to find a lease deal on a 530d that made sense and couldn't. Plenty of bonkers offers on things like 335d's but the 5 Series always seemed to get left out. Any I did find at £300 a month typically excluded VAT or were on 6/9+23 profiles with hefty deposits, which once you armotise across the term, comes out at rather more than £300 a month.

As for 3 year values, who knows. By that time the G30 will be having a strong effect on residuals at the upper end of the market but given WBAC offered £13k for my 6.5 year old 530d SE £19k for an M Sport at less than half the age and probably less miles doesn't sound like it's £10k out even once you take the G30 effect into consideration.

There is simply no way a 530d purchased new today at the prevailing level of discount will lose £30k over 3 years.

The list prices are irrelevant as nobody should be paying even close to list.

[Fox530]

Originally Posted by MrPogle

Yes but assuming the 15.5k is the amount they are willing to sell you the car for, it is a meaningless figure without knowing how much you have already paid them. It isn't necessarily the market value of the car.

It is generally set at slightly below the predicted trade market value of the car in order to give the customer some deposit towards the next one and keep them on the PCP hook, as well as to protect the lender against people walking off and leaving them with an asset worth far less than the final payment.

The lenders got burnt badly with the fantasyland final values coming home to roost in circa 2009.

[E60MKF]

I wish leasing was a more viable option in the UK but PCP with the low deposit is killing the leasing market