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05-15-2024, 11:41 AM | #8317 | |
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05-15-2024, 01:37 PM | #8318 | |
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With respect to forecasting the economy, the old joke is if you assemble a group of five economists and ask for their predictions, you’ll get at least seven forecasts. And another: an economist, an engineer, and a landscaper are trapped in a hole. They each work on a plan to get out. After the engineer and landscaper describe various ways to dig, make stairs, etc., they ask the economist for his solution. He responds, “assume a ladder,…” |
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05-15-2024, 02:20 PM | #8319 | |
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05-16-2024, 02:42 PM | #8320 |
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My investment portfolio has never been so large. My paid off house is worth double what we paid back in 2007. Once my daughter is off to college in early 2027, I'm retiring at 53, my wife and I will downsize substantially and buy/build a sub 1,200 ft2 3 bedroom home with lots of windows and outside living space, do a nice standalone garage, be off the grid as much as possible with solar/wind/well water, big garden, and just enjoy an easy life.
We're going backwards compared to what most do as they get older by getting a bigger home, second home on a beach/lake, etc. I'm done with managing and fixing stuff on our 1970s 2,200 ft2 home, maintaining a yard and grass (so stupid), having a huge basement that just collects crap, etc. I'm done with my stuff owning me and my time. I fully expect a recession/big market drop starting late this year and lasting through the end of 2026. I just pray my portfolio is worth as much in early 2027 as it is now
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05-16-2024, 03:14 PM | #8321 |
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Just found out my homeowners insurance policy renewal next month is going up 50%, what a joke, to many that is a huge deal. Woo hoo food inflation has stopped but other crap is still out of control...
One reason I am skeptical on the state of the US economy, especially from any political source, is pretty much all the major industrial nations aren't doing so great, so how are we the only ones "looking" good. Japan for example, is F'd and been so for a while.
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05-16-2024, 07:16 PM | #8322 |
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If you're skeptical of the government reported numbers, Shadowstats offers a different perspective, accounting for factors conveniently omitted from the "official" reporting.
Inflation: https://www.shadowstats.com/alternat...flation-charts Unemployment: https://www.shadowstats.com/alternat...loyment-charts |
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05-17-2024, 07:03 AM | #8323 | ||
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Cars are almost an irrelevant metric because you can always buy used for a fraction of the price and there is a ton of choice. Food is HIGHLY selectable by people and alternate options to brands always exist... cooking at home is an option. Gas, energy and transport are almost never optional and those continue to be high. Appliances / electronics? not sure how that is even a relevant metric for anyone as that is almost always disposable unless you buy a wachine machine once every 10 years lol
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Yesterday, 09:34 AM | #8324 | |
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John Williams, the author of that site, is a clown. His methodology for calculating inflation has a major misrepresentation. He calculates the cumulative 20 year change in the measured price level (something the BLS does, and has on their site) and represents it as annual increase. He also gets his UE figure by including people who have not looked for a job in over 12 months, and have no interest in even getting a job. My wife, a stay at home mom, hasn't worked in over 12 months and at this time isn't looking for a job....she is included in Williams pumped up figures.
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