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You have to be close to lease end for a BMW to be worth the buyout, and some never approach that point. BMW residuals are usually fairly high (thus good lease prices). It makes sense to me that BMWFS would negotiate if they know the car coming in isn't worth the buyout. Why wouldn't they want to unload it to the person already driving it rather than incur any additional expenses to take it in, inspect it, store it, transport it, etc… All comes down to your original deal and the resale market. I've never negotiated a buyout, I'm just saying it would make good business sense in such a case where the car simply is not worth the buyout price, and I have heard of others saying they have successfully negotiated.
On the flip side of that, we traded in an X3 about 8 months early when we got our X5. We got enough on a trade-in to pay off the buyout (bearing in mind the dealer doesn't pay tax on the buyout when taking it in trade, so it's lower than the buyout you're quoted from BMWFS by the sales tax amount). So, it stands to reason that car would have been worth the buyout, maybe more, had we held it for the remaining 8 months of the lease. In that situation, I don't expect BMWFS would negotiate much, if at all. The 335 I just sent back early using the pull ahead program when I got my 550 on the other hand, seemed like it would never be worth the buyout. 6 months early and it was worth a good 5k less than the buyout at that point in time (the adjusted buyout if I were to buy it out 6 months early, not the lease-end buyout..). 6 more months of paying down the principal might have gotten it there, but I don't think it would have bridged the gap entirely as it also continued to depreciate.
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