[2000cs]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

It is always important to separate the day-to-day gyrations of the stock market from the economy. And coming off 2023's stock market performance and YTD 2024, a pullback seems reasonable.

The FED has been signaling a rate reduction for months. A September cut was very much expected, based on inflation numbers, before this pullback.

I have used every pullback since the 1990's as a buying opportunity, sometimes employing the broader market, sometimes individual issues. It would be a mistake to draw any broad economic conclusions from this market activity. And a mistake to let political views impact investing decisions. Absolutely no one can predict the economic future. All that we have are backwards looking indicators - GDP, inflation, unemployment, employment - and the trend line they represent.

This may be a relevant data point - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/carr...-sell-off.html

I agree about drawing economic conclusions from market activity; the stock market is not the economy, but something of a poor predictor of the future of the economy.

In addition to the carry trade in your article and that I mentioned in a prior post, there is programmatic selling as various triggers hit (technical selling). That tends to be quick, sharp, and over done. Which we’ve seen some of already today (bouncing back part way). Remains to be seen whether sentiment gets negative and begins a full bear market. My bet is small correction (we may already be done with it, but will be volatile for a few days), because money needs a place to go and there still is no better than the US markets, broadly speaking.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

I think you meant lowering rates now would be a bad idea. I agree, but mainly because of the signal it sends about recession fears and not so much the reason you mention. Should have dropped 1/4 last meeting, will have to do that in September and may go farther if things don’t moderate.

I’m generally in the camp that this blows over and creates a buying opportunity. I don’t see it as the start of a sustained bear market - at least not yet. Check back with me in a year on that!

I agree with almost all of this. Still, a data-driven FED with a mandate, has no option but to lower rates. I would even submit that a lowering at the last meeting might have spurred the markets higher initially and resulted in an even bigger pullback now. It is all speculation.

Using lagging indicators is always going to result in short term dislocations. The alternative is to substitute predictions for data, only adding to the confusion. Totally agree on program trading. And that money needs to go somewhere. We know that this is not retail investors selling assets
either, in tandem, so rapidly.

I am not seeing any pattern to this selloff, with everything from large value to small growth getting hit.

[Our03z4]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

I agree with almost all of this. Still, a data-driven FED with a mandate, has no option but to lower rates. I would even submit that a lowering at the last meeting might have spurred the markets higher initially and resulted in an even bigger pullback now. It is all speculation.

Using lagging indicators is always going to result in short term dislocations. The alternative is to substitute predictions for data, only adding to the confusion. Totally agree on program trading. And that money needs to go somewhere. We know that this is not retail investors selling assets
either, in tandem, so rapidly.

I am not seeing any pattern to this selloff, with everything from large value to small growth getting hit.

I agree, even stocks that are fair value are dropping. Fine by me, I'll buy extra especially since I have 30 years to go. I haven't even looked at my portfolio today and won't. I believe in the companies I have.

I'm more worried about a true downturn hurting my actual businesses. The 08 down turn got us good but we are better prepared this time I believe. (I hope)

[tom2021]

BMW's EV are more popular in Europe now.
We have no doubt, they can produce better luxurious EV than Tesla.
BMWYY stocks down due to recall.
Is it a buy?

[bagekko]

Thought about buying the dip after the brake issue. True there are so many electrified BMWs in Europe. In Switzerland see a ton of i's and almost everything else is a PHEV. Got a brand new X5 50e last week and like it. I don't even think that all the EVs or PHEVs BMW has are sold in the US, I think there is so much demand in Europe there is no capacity left for the US, dk how much they send to Asia.

Originally Posted by tom2021

BMW's EV are more popular in Europe now.
We have no doubt, they can produce better luxurious EV than Tesla.
BMWYY stocks down due to recall.
Is it a buy?

[bagekko]

I really hope the rate cut tomorrow is 50bp else the market will drop a ton if 25bp, super unlikely its 75bp or 0.

[Donatello.]

What AI stocks are you buying these days & why? Looking at add at least 1 to my portfolio.

[dradernh]

Originally Posted by bagekko

I don't even think that all the EVs or PHEVs BMW has are sold in the US, I think there is so much demand in Europe there is no capacity left for the US, dk how much they send to Asia.

In 2023 the leading countries were:

China 32.3%
U.S. 15.6
Germany 10.7
UK 6.2
S. Korea 3.3

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-of-bmw-group/